AU in HC's Year 4 since WWII

Unfortunately, I think Auburn lands in the middle of the outlier and average.

8 wins is realistic.

Bump for posterity.

Really highlights the Bowden/Malzahn similarities IMHO.

Program was considered in pretty good shape going into Year 5 for everyone else (excluding Chiz, of course):

- Shug finished with 7 straight wins in 1954, including a 28-0 shutout of Bama, and AU's first bowl win since 1938.
- Barfield's 1979 team whipped UGa between the hedges and lost a heartbreaker to eventual NC Bama, and looked poised to come back strong in '80 (we didn't).
- Dye's 1984 team was a disappointment coming off the '83 SEC Champ squad, but losing Bo to a major injury for half the year provided a reasonable excuse. We were thought highly enough that we started out '85 ranked #1.
- Tubs fourth season in 2002 ended with a tough, last-minute loss to eventual SEC Champ UGa, a surprise upset in Tuscaloosa, and a dominating performance over favored Penn State in the Citrus, leading to another top-ten preseason ranking for '03.

Only Bowden (and Malzahn) went into their fifth season on the Plains with any kind of job uncertainty. After brutal last-second losses to UGa and Bama to close out 1996, and a near collapse against Army in the Indy Bowl, Bowden was called out by Housel in the offseason, saying, and I quote here, "8 and 4 won't get the job done at Auburn".

For the record, here's how AU actually fared in Year 5 under the above HCs.

Shug: 8-2-1
Barfield: 5-6
Dye: 8-4
Bowden: 10-3
Tubs: 7-5

Gustav will probably need to do at least as well as Bowden (SEC West Champs, sweep LSU/UGa/Bama, bowl win over P5 opponent) to make it to year 6.

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Gustav will probably need to do at least as well as Bowden (SEC West Champs, sweep LSU/UGa/Bama, bowl win over P5 opponent) to make it to year 6.

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False, all he has to do is make a bowl game next year. I am struggling to find 6 losses on our schedule next year too.

W Georgia Southern
L @ Clemson
W Mercer
W @ Mizzou
W State
W Ole Miss
L @ LSU
L @ Arky
bye
W @ATM
W UGA
W ULM
L Bama

Maybe if we drop the ATM & UGA games but those aren't likely. I think at worst next year we are 8-4 headed into bowl season. If Stidham is half of what he is billed as we should coast to 9-3.

It is likely we lose to UGA. Why in the hell do you think we'd win?

It was an exercise in looking at our schedule. There are a few tossup games that I picked one way or another. It is very unlikely we don't win 8 games next year.

guys, we are an 8-4 program. period.

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False, all he has to do is make a bowl game next year...I think at worst next year we are 8-4 headed into bowl season

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This promises to be our deepest, most talented, most experienced team since 2010.

As in 1997, we should be expected to challenge for the West. Obviously, the big difference between now and 20 years ago is Bama (DuBose instead of Saban), but our other SEC opponents are about the same or worse than they were back then. So maybe beating Bama and winning the the West is still a stretch.

However, besides the Tide only Clemson, LSU and UGa will have as much or more talent on the field as AU. Dabo will probably figure out a way to beat us despite losing Watson and a few other stars, but we should at least be competitive in that game. But if we lose either of the other two it will be because we get outcoached - and if Gustav can't figure out a way to beat the likes of Orgeron and Kirby, then we are better off taking our chances with a program reboot.

That is, only if we have someone other than Jacobs in charge of hitting Ctrl+Alt+Delete.