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Ark vs Auburn game week and prediction discussion

Posted on 10/19/16 at 10:44 am
Posted by atlau
Member since Oct 2012
5264 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 10:44 am
Arky fans are unbearable on the Rant. I think they've taken the Cowbells' mantle as the new grinders.

Offensive Stat Comparison

Stat ------------------ ARK -------- AUB
Yards/Play ----------- 5.4 ---------- 5.9
Points/Play-------- 0.407 ------ 0.395
Rush Play------ % 53.81 - % 66.80%
Pass Play------ % 46.19 - % 33.20%
Completion----- % 61.88 - % 68.92%
3D Conv--------- % 42.35 - % 47.25%
RZ Scoring----- % 78.79 - % 81.25%

Defensive Stat Comparison

Stat ---------------------- ARK --------- AUB
Opp Yards/Play --------- 6.4 --------- 4.9
Opp Points/Play------ 0.476 ------ 0.226
Opp Completion---- % 56.48 - % 55.28%
Opp 3D Conv-------- % 48.72 - % 31.52%
Opp RZ Scoring---- % 82.61 - % 68.18%

I think the most telling stat is that Ark is #125 in the country in defense/rushing ypc
and we're #10 in country in offense/rushing ypg.

Interesting Stat: PPG
#39 - Auburn - 32.3
#40 - Arkansas - 32

Our two losses skew that number a bit and Arkansas has one more game than we do.

If we continue to play well offensively in the RZ, limit penalties/mistakes/negative plays, and are able to pound the ball with KJ, KP and ST, we should win this game.

Playing at home should be a huge advantage.

My only concern is the team starting slowly after coming off a bye. When I watched the OM game, I wonder if that's what was wrong with Kelly - he looked bad.

Prediction:
AU - 34
Ark - 24
This post was edited on 10/19/16 at 12:43 pm
Posted by rbWarEagle
Member since Nov 2009
49999 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 11:39 am to
quote:

My only concern is the team starting slowly after coming off a bye. When I watched the OM game, I wonder if that's what was wrong with Kelly - he looked bad.


I have a feeling that the defense is going to come out hot. Matthews was pretty vocal in his disappointment in the latter part of the State game.
Posted by auzach91
Marietta, GA
Member since Jan 2009
40248 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 11:42 am to
30
17

Good guys
This post was edited on 10/19/16 at 11:43 am
Posted by Jyrdis
TD Premium Member Level III
Member since Aug 2015
12783 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 11:47 am to
AU - 35
Ark - 17
Posted by HouseofWaffles
Member since Nov 2014
4651 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 11:52 am to
31-20

Carlton Davis with a pick 6.
Posted by PuntBamaPunt
Member since Nov 2010
10070 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 11:58 am to
52-3
Posted by Rig
BHM
Member since Aug 2011
41856 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 12:25 pm to
27-24 Auburn
This post was edited on 10/19/16 at 12:26 pm
Posted by awestruck
Member since Jan 2015
10919 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

Offensive Stat Comparison

Stat ------------------ ARK -------- AUB
Yards/Play ----------- 5.4 ---------- 5.9
Points/Play-------- 0.407 ------ 0.395
Rush Play------ % 53.81 - % 66.80%
Pass Play------ % 46.19 - % 33.20%
Completion----- % 61.88 - % 68.92%
3D Conv--------- % 42.35 - % 47.25%
RZ Scoring----- % 78.79 - % 81.25%

Defensive Stat Comparison

Stat ---------------------- ARK --------- AUB
Opp Yards/Play --------- 6.4 --------- 4.9
Opp Points/Play------ 0.476 ------ 0.226
Opp Completion---- % 56.48 - % 55.28%
Opp 3D Conv-------- % 48.72 - % 31.52%
Opp RZ Scoring---- % 82.61 - % 68.18%
Posted by gsm1060
Tree stand
Member since Dec 2009
683 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 12:42 pm to
31-20 AU.
Posted by atlau
Member since Oct 2012
5264 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 12:43 pm to
Thanks. Updated the OP to make it easier to read.
Posted by blzr
Keeneland
Member since Mar 2011
30077 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 12:46 pm to
I think we should win by 10+ I'll go 37-24
This post was edited on 10/19/16 at 12:47 pm
Posted by joeyb147
Member since Jun 2009
16019 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

The Solid Verbal ?@SolidVerbal 22h22 hours ago
The Solid Verbal Retweeted The Solid Verbal

Bottom 5 in Frequency of 10+ yd runs allowed (of total rushes, min 3 gm vs P5)

• Kansas, 18.6%
• Purdue, 20%
• Hawai’i, 21.1%
• Oregon, 21.4%
• Arkansas, 22.3%
quote:

John Ringer ?@jkringer 29m29 minutes ago

I want to be very clear about what that stat means - When Power 5 teams run the ball against Arkansas then 22% of the time it goes 10+ yards
quote:

John Ringer ?@jkringer 26m26 minutes ago


For comparison purposes the 2012 Auburn defense allowed a rush of 10+ yards 14% of the time.







quote:

The Solid Verbal ?@SolidVerbal Oct 18

10+ yard passes allowed frequency (min 3 gm vs P5)

1. Mich, 15.3%
2. Va Tech, 15.4%
3. S Carolina, 18.6%
4. Wash, 18.9%
5. Auburn, 19.8%
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37704 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 12:49 pm to
quote:



For comparison purposes the 2012 Auburn defense allowed a rush of 10+ yards 14% of the time.


quote:

Arkansas, 22.3%


Posted by konjis1
Member since Feb 2014
325 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 1:00 pm to
27-20 AU
Posted by weagle12
Newnan, GA
Member since Jul 2016
154 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

quote:
The Solid Verbal ?@SolidVerbal Oct 18

10+ yard passes allowed frequency (min 3 gm vs P5)

1. Mich, 15.3%
2. Va Tech, 15.4%
3. S Carolina, 18.6%
4. Wash, 18.9%
5. Auburn, 19.8%




so 1 out of 5 completions our defense allows, is greater than 10yds? am i reading that correctly?
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
105355 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 1:54 pm to
Auburn by 17
Posted by jvilletiger25
jacksonville, fl
Member since Jan 2014
16944 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 1:55 pm to
We're going to beat that pig arse!

42-13 AU
Posted by HouseofWaffles
Member since Nov 2014
4651 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 2:03 pm to
Yup. And the pigs give up a run over 10 yards on one out of five.
Posted by weagle12
Newnan, GA
Member since Jul 2016
154 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 2:16 pm to
interesting. could cause some problems for us if we give AA time.
Posted by AU_251
Your dads room
Member since Feb 2013
11559 posts
Posted on 10/19/16 at 2:58 pm to
No, I believe that stat is a good thing for us
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