quote:

I'd sadly lean more toward the likely outcome being the latter because the young pitching has mostly looked pretty horrible. A "hand the keys to all of the kids and wish them luck" season is likely not going to be pretty for at least the first half of the season. But if this FO can be patient it'd be good for the big picture.

Yep, there is equally as much chance JUlio is what he is now as he improves, and Folty is what he is at this point most likely. Newcomb will have to improve his change a great deal and/or get tremendously better control to not wind up as a short inning back of the rotation guy or a reliever. Gohara is looking very promising, but that's just one arm, and our starting rotation was one of the worst in baseball. The bullpen should be better, but you are looking at a around 4 win swing there WARwise even if everyone is good.

The offense and defensive overall WAR total probably doesn't improve that much next year unless we are dumping both Kemp and Markakis, which is unlikely. Suzuki and Flowers will likely drop off quite a bit offensively, so that will offset the gains by Albies being up all year and whatever Acuna gives.

I thought we were a 75ish win team last year, plus or minus 3 wins either way. I think we are around 78ish wins next year give or take a couple wins. I think we have a shot at low 80s wins if the rookie pitchers come up hot.

But acting like we are going to become a mid 80s win team simply for no other reason than other teams have done it is simply silly.

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Posted by volfan30

Member since Jun 2010

40949 posts

Posted on 10/2/17 at 12:55 am to auyushu

I expect them to be about 80-83 wins next season based on quick WAR calculations.

I think Acuna and Albies are both going to be very productive. Swanson should take a step forward. Inciarte and Freeman you know what you’re getting. A step back at catcher in all likelihood. 3B should be bad again unless there is an acquisition. LF likely bad.

Bullpen I expect to be much better. Rotation slightly better at the worst.

This year went almost exactly as expected based on WAR projections.

If next year is a .500 team with the kids then you can really start going balls to the wall to supplement and open the window in ‘19.

This post was edited on 10/2/17 at 12:57 am

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Posted by SummerOfGeorge

Member since Jul 2013

102699 posts

Posted on 10/2/17 at 7:47 am to volfan30

quote:
I expect them to be about 80-83 wins next season based on quick WAR calculations. I think Acuna and Albies are both going to be very productive. Swanson should take a step forward. Inciarte and Freeman you know what you’re getting. A step back at catcher in all likelihood. 3B should be bad again unless there is an acquisition. LF likely bad. Bullpen I expect to be much better. Rotation slightly better at the worst. This year went almost exactly as expected based on WAR projections. If next year is a .500 team with the kids then you can really start going balls to the wall to supplement and open the window in ‘19.

Excellent analysis per the usual VF30. Agree 100%. Next year is the year that we should be seriously competing heading into August. I don't necessarily expect to make the playoffs, but I expect to feel like we are a raw, talented team and the record to show that.

Also agree re: the position analysis. I think the bullpen is going to be much, much, much better. Rotation is a wild card due to the possibility of moves and the unknowns of young starters.

I don't know how anybody who watches this team everyday isn't excited about next season.

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Posted by auyushu

Surprise, AZ

Member since Jan 2011

8582 posts

Posted on 10/2/17 at 7:16 pm to volfan30

quote:
I expect them to be about 80-83 wins next season based on quick WAR calculations.

Where are you seeing the extra wins from? The scenario in your OP isn't really feasible, as getting Archer would cost us 2 of our top 6 prospects even if he was traded.

We probably get 1.5 WAR or so from having Winkler and Minter the full year. Julio could bounce back some and having Newcomb for the entire year could give us another 1.5 WAR extra. Gohara could be a 3 WARish guy giving us another 2 WAR.

Offensively I think it depends on when Acuna comes up and if Kemp is dumped. We could gain 3 WAR or more if Acuna starts the year and Kemp doesn't play at all, but I don't see that happening really. Albies probably a good bet to add another 1 WAR over the 3.5 he and Phillips combined for this season. Swanson could bounce back and add 2 WAR or so. I see the catcher position dropping 2-2.5 WAR. Freddie playing the full season probably gains us a smidge more than what he and Adams combined for, though Adams was smoking hot when Freddie was out.

And odds are at least 2 of those players get injured at some point given normal injury luck, particularly with Minter's history.

I can see 8-10 wins improvement there, but I kinda go on the low end of the spectrum due to Snitker being our manager and figure he's good for an extra 2-3 losses at least due to his inability to handle a pitching staff and bullpen properly. If we had Bud Black as a manager I'd probably lean more towards low 80s with our young pitchers coming up.

This post was edited on 10/2/17 at 7:17 pm

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Posted by SummerOfGeorge

Member since Jul 2013

102699 posts

Posted on 10/2/17 at 10:36 pm to SECFan1995

quote:
I'd sadly lean more toward the likely outcome being the latter because the young pitching has mostly looked pretty horrible

I thought Newk, Gohara, Sims and Fried were fine this year. Will they be sub-3 guys next season? No, but they weren't shelled this year at all. Wisler and Blair? Yea, they were awful. Newk and Gohara had a 4.28 and 3.83 FIP this year. Slot them 4 and 5 is automatically better than what we got from Colon for 2 months. Substantially.

I think a 80-85 win season should be expected. But Snitker will come back and we'll dick around 4 games so who knows.

This post was edited on 10/2/17 at 10:43 pm

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