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FanGraphs KATOH Midseason Top 100 Prospects
Posted on 7/27/17 at 8:43 am
Posted on 7/27/17 at 8:43 am
FanGraphs developed a formula that judges stats in the minor leagues (normalized for different parks and leagues, ie the Pacific Coast League is basically like playing all your games at Coors Field) and then judged the same players stats in the majors and developed a predictive formula to use on current Minor League players stats. Their accuracy over the last 2-3 years has been pretty good, too. So basically, they predict the value of a current minor leaguer over his first 6 years in the major leagues completely based on input stats from the minor leagues, adjusted for his league, age, etc.
FanGraphs KATOH Midseason Top 100
Stats-Only Top 100
1. Ronald Acuna (OF) (ATL, AAA) : +13.1 WAR
2. Ozzie Albies (2B) (ATL, AAA) : +12.9 WAR
17. Mike Soroka (RHP) (ATL, AA) : +9.0 WAR
39. Cristian Pache (OF) (ATL, A) : +7.4 WAR
74. Ian Anderson (RHP) (ATL, A) : +5.2 WAR
80. Joey Wentz (LHP) (ATL, A) : +5.1 WAR
95. Sean Newcomb (LHP) (ATL, MLB) : +4.7 WAR
100. Luiz Gohara (LHP) (ATL, AA) : +4.6 WAR
Newcomb, through 8 starts, currently has a 0.5 WAR. So he is well on his way to matching/surpassing that +4.7 number over 6 years.
The best part about this list is that each prospect is treated as if he is unknown and all that matters is his production so far. It shows that our kids aren't ranked highly because of hype or something they did pre-draft/signing, they are there because they have been dominating their leagues. Good stuff.
FanGraphs KATOH Midseason Top 100
Stats-Only Top 100
1. Ronald Acuna (OF) (ATL, AAA) : +13.1 WAR
2. Ozzie Albies (2B) (ATL, AAA) : +12.9 WAR
17. Mike Soroka (RHP) (ATL, AA) : +9.0 WAR
39. Cristian Pache (OF) (ATL, A) : +7.4 WAR
74. Ian Anderson (RHP) (ATL, A) : +5.2 WAR
80. Joey Wentz (LHP) (ATL, A) : +5.1 WAR
95. Sean Newcomb (LHP) (ATL, MLB) : +4.7 WAR
100. Luiz Gohara (LHP) (ATL, AA) : +4.6 WAR
Newcomb, through 8 starts, currently has a 0.5 WAR. So he is well on his way to matching/surpassing that +4.7 number over 6 years.
The best part about this list is that each prospect is treated as if he is unknown and all that matters is his production so far. It shows that our kids aren't ranked highly because of hype or something they did pre-draft/signing, they are there because they have been dominating their leagues. Good stuff.
This post was edited on 7/27/17 at 8:53 am
Posted on 7/27/17 at 10:14 am to SummerOfGeorge
Vlad has a kid about to be in the majors? Ooh boy I am old.
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