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It's time to start a serious, fact-based analysis of this MA situation
Posted on 2/5/17 at 11:53 am
Posted on 2/5/17 at 11:53 am
Maybe this is just a mid-season slump and Mike is poised to get this team on a late season roll, peaking at the perfect time to make some noise in the tournament and all is well as we look forward to a couple of fairly impressive recruiting classes.
But when you look back at the results of the last six years, I think it wise to plan for all contingencies.
If we continue to slump, we could end the regular season at 20-11, give or take a game. Then if we don't get to the final of the conference tournament, I doubt we make the NCAA tournament.
If that happens, can we fire our coach?
Before I spent 30 minutes this morning looking into it, I didn't think so.
Now I think so.
Please correct me where my fact gathering is wrong.
MA is contracted through 2020, but has a buyout of only one million, which is not a problem since we're bleeding more than that in lost ticket sales right now.
MA has a fairly impressive line up of signees and recruits for the next two years,
but seven out of eight of them are from the state of Arkansas, and it's been reported on here that there is worry the one highly rated out of state recruit will flip before signing day anyway.
What are the odds that we lose any of the in-state recruits/signees over the next two years if Mike gets canned?
Unlike football, this state seems to be putting out an inordinate amount of in-state talent in basketball.
What if we had a coaching staff that could pull in a highly rated player from outside of Arkansas every year or two, instead of having our in-state studs raided successfully every year or two?
Just something to think about depending on how the season ends.
But when you look back at the results of the last six years, I think it wise to plan for all contingencies.
If we continue to slump, we could end the regular season at 20-11, give or take a game. Then if we don't get to the final of the conference tournament, I doubt we make the NCAA tournament.
If that happens, can we fire our coach?
Before I spent 30 minutes this morning looking into it, I didn't think so.
Now I think so.
Please correct me where my fact gathering is wrong.
MA is contracted through 2020, but has a buyout of only one million, which is not a problem since we're bleeding more than that in lost ticket sales right now.
MA has a fairly impressive line up of signees and recruits for the next two years,
but seven out of eight of them are from the state of Arkansas, and it's been reported on here that there is worry the one highly rated out of state recruit will flip before signing day anyway.
What are the odds that we lose any of the in-state recruits/signees over the next two years if Mike gets canned?
Unlike football, this state seems to be putting out an inordinate amount of in-state talent in basketball.
What if we had a coaching staff that could pull in a highly rated player from outside of Arkansas every year or two, instead of having our in-state studs raided successfully every year or two?
Just something to think about depending on how the season ends.
This post was edited on 2/5/17 at 11:55 am
2
Posted on 2/5/17 at 12:08 pm to PygmalionEffect
TL/DR fire mike.
Posted on 2/5/17 at 12:10 pm to russellvillehog
quote:
TL/DR fire mike.
Posted on 2/5/17 at 12:31 pm to russellvillehog
quote:
TL/DR
Bet Trump's intelligence gathering staff gets that a lot.
Posted on 2/5/17 at 12:36 pm to PygmalionEffect
quote:
Bet Trump's intelligence gathering staff gets that a lot.
GODDAMMIT IT PYG
Posted on 2/5/17 at 12:39 pm to russellvillehog
quote:
TL/DR fire mike.
I do not support firing Mike
Posted on 2/5/17 at 12:41 pm to PygmalionEffect
He's here for another 2 years no matter what.
Basketball is dead to me
Basketball is dead to me
Posted on 2/5/17 at 12:55 pm to ArHog
quote:
He's here for another 2 years no matter what.
There's no way, unless there's a major turnaround this season and it buys him another year. Trust me, admin and Long are very aware of the impending fan revolt and want to avoid another Nutt situation at any cost. They solely worry about finding a suitable replacement after this season, which would be their only reason to give MA another chance should the floundering continue.
Posted on 2/5/17 at 1:55 pm to PygmalionEffect
quote:
Bet Trump's intelligence gathering staff gets that a lot.
Haha, that's funny cause you dislike him and he won anyways.
Posted on 2/5/17 at 2:02 pm to OSqueal
4 straight years of winning is going to be great for our country. It would be nice if we could also make Arkansas basketball great again.
Posted on 2/5/17 at 2:11 pm to TheCheshireHog
Make
Arkansas
Great
Again
Arkansas
Great
Again
Posted on 2/5/17 at 2:26 pm to ArHog
quote:
He's here for another 2 years no matter what.
Are you basing that on the theory that Long wouldn't take a chance on rocking the cradle with the recruits?
We all know it didn't stop him from firing Pelphrey who had the best class signed since the mid 90's on paper at the time Long booted his arse out the door.
What facts have I overlooked that would alter my conclusion that if MA doesn't make the NCAA he's gone?
Posted on 2/5/17 at 2:31 pm to RazorBroncs
quote:
Trust me, admin and Long are very aware of the impending fan revolt and want to avoid another Nutt situation at any cost.
Interesting. This is my biggest blind spot in this thing and it's probably the most important one, even more relevant than wins and losses; getting a read on Long's mind set and attitude.
Posted on 2/5/17 at 2:39 pm to RazorBroncs
quote:
RazorBroncs
the first time I think I have ever disagreed with you.
MA, I believe, will be here 2-3 more years unless a melt of epic proportions happens. The recruiting class is a small part of it, but there was also a promise to MA that he would have time after moving Zimmerman with the additions.
Next step imho prior to MA being gone, another assistant move along. Care to guess who?
I honestly hope you are right about this one.
Posted on 2/5/17 at 2:40 pm to RazorBroncs
quote:
There's no way, unless there's a major turnaround this season and it buys him another year. Trust me, admin and Long are very aware of the impending fan revolt and want to avoid another Nutt situation at any cost. They solely worry about finding a suitable replacement after this season, which would be their only reason to give MA another chance should the floundering continue.
3 more wins, puts him at 20 win season which is equal to 7-5 in football, IMO. He's got some great recruits coming in, APR looks great.
That's positive enough for Mike to convince Jeff at the end of the year for another two years.
It will take a huge fan revolt, drop in season tickets etc... to get Mike out before 2019
Posted on 2/5/17 at 2:45 pm to ArHog
quote:
3 more wins, puts him at 20 win season which is equal to 7-5 in football,
Normally that's probably about right, but this is a weird year where the average RPI of the teams we've beaten is 135.
Extremely soft schedule this year. No signature wins outside of Tenner who was at 39 before they lost yesterday.
When Bert goes 7-5 in the SEC, he's probably had to beat a couple teams ranked in the top 40, more probable the top 20.
Posted on 2/5/17 at 3:43 pm to ArHog
quote:
It will take a huge fan revolt, drop in season tickets etc... to get Mike out before 2019
It would be nice if we didn't have such a terrible athletic department, and it didn't take the fans outright revolting to get actual change.
Other programs can read the tea leaves and actually see when their coaches aren't working out. We give ours inexplicable contract extensions and sit on our hands until die hard fans either revolt or abandon the program.
Posted on 2/5/17 at 9:39 pm to ArHog
If we get to 19-20 wins in ugly fashion Long WILL be gauging interest on the market, I can promise you that. He's very much about proven "upgrades" and no up-and-comers though, so short of some known coaching quantity knocking on our door this offseason it would take a huge collapse to pull the trigger. In other words, 20 wins probably gets MA one more year with the current coaching market, while Long begins to research and put the feelers out to proven HCs concerning next offseason.
If we should somehow lose out or only win 1 more, I could see Long putting aside his proven coach criteria and getting the best coach he can find regardless. I'm also 100% sure that MA will be gone with another lackluster season next year, no ifs ands or buts.
TL;DR - no way Anderson gets 2-3 more years barring a major turnaround
If we should somehow lose out or only win 1 more, I could see Long putting aside his proven coach criteria and getting the best coach he can find regardless. I'm also 100% sure that MA will be gone with another lackluster season next year, no ifs ands or buts.
TL;DR - no way Anderson gets 2-3 more years barring a major turnaround
Posted on 2/5/17 at 10:20 pm to RazorBroncs
20 wins in this conference are rent-a -wins, Mike can sleep walk through that with his shitty 40 minutes of WTF. That won't get him shite canned unless the season ticket sales go below 9k. Then and only then will Jeff long take notice, when they get it in the billfold.
Posted on 2/6/17 at 10:16 am to ArHog
Whatever they decide to do...we're not good and we're not going to get good under MA.
Even the recruits we have committed (Non-binding...imagine what happens when UK or UNC decide they want one of these guys...and we've got a 19-12 train wreck of a season to show them)....won't change the fact that we don't develop players, we don't coach fundamentals and we play like our kids just met each other on a playground.
The embarassing 'coaching' that's overheard from the bench is just sad. MIke has no strategy...none...and can't adjust in a game situation at all. In reality....he's a not so attractive cheerleader.
Even the recruits we have committed (Non-binding...imagine what happens when UK or UNC decide they want one of these guys...and we've got a 19-12 train wreck of a season to show them)....won't change the fact that we don't develop players, we don't coach fundamentals and we play like our kids just met each other on a playground.
The embarassing 'coaching' that's overheard from the bench is just sad. MIke has no strategy...none...and can't adjust in a game situation at all. In reality....he's a not so attractive cheerleader.
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