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"Expert" Predictions for the Alabama-LSU game
Posted on 11/6/15 at 12:47 am
Posted on 11/6/15 at 12:47 am
Bleacher Report
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When: Saturday, Nov. 7; 8 p.m. ET
Last meeting: Blake Sims threw a six-yard touchdown pass to DeAndrew White in overtime to give Alabama a 20-13 win at LSU last November.
What to watch for
The College Football Playoff won't officially begin until New Year's Eve, but the annual Alabama/LSU game is in effect a playoff quarterfinal based on where the teams sit in the initial rankings. A loss might not eliminate either team from consideration, but a win in this major showdown will go a long way toward claiming one of those four spots.
"Alabama and LSU like to go toe-to-toe and see who blinks first, and the games usually come down to one possession," Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh wrote.
LSU (7-0, 4-0 SEC) has the nation's best running back in Leonard Fournette, who right now is the heavy favorite for the Heisman, per Odds Shark, and the most unstoppable weapon in the country. His 193.14 rushing yards per game is 45 more than any other player in FBS, and his "worst" game was last time out when he had only 150 yards against Western Kentucky.
However, Alabama (7-1, 4-1) is third nationally against the run, allowing 78.5 yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. Only two teams have gone for more than 100 yards on the ground against the Crimson Tide, and one of those was Georgia when it still had Nick Chubb.
Neither team has had particularly stellar quarterback play, but LSU's Brandon Harris has been showing improvement as the season went on. He's yet to throw an interception in 2015, serving as an asset rather than a liability.
Alabama's Jake Coker has been mostly good too, though he's being compared to the record-breaking performance that Sims had in 2014, which cuts into his evaluation.
This game will also feature two of the nation's top 20 defenses, with Alabama's unit rising to another level since giving up 43 points in a home loss to Ole Miss. Since then, they've yielded 61 points in five games, and in four SEC contests they've allowed 4.43 yards per play.
Defense is usually how games in the Alabama/LSU series get determined, and that's where Alabama has the clearer advantage that will give it the victory and create a logjam atop the West Division standings.
Prediction: Alabama 23, LSU 21
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Posted on 11/6/15 at 12:52 am to TideSaint
ESPN
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LSU AT ALABAMA
Edward Aschoff: I’m dubbing this one the “Grandpappy of Them All.” Every single year this one is a big deal, and you'd better believe the highest of stakes are on the line in Tuscaloosa. Guess who isn’t afraid of big, bad Bama? LSU. The Tigers poke their chests out just as far as -- if not farther than -- the Tide. Leonard Fournette will rush for at least 150 yards and Brandon Harris will make enough plays with his legs to keep Alabama’s defense on its heels. This one is gonna come down to the fourth quarter, and Fournette will wear down Alabama’s front to give LSU a 23-20 victory.
David Ching: Even if Alabama has been sloppy at home this season, it's absurd to think that playing this game in Bryant-Denny Stadium would be a disadvantage in any way for the Crimson Tide. The crowd noise will be incredible, and that might create problems for an LSU offense that hasn't played on the road in six weeks. On a neutral field, I might take LSU here, but I'll go with Bama to squeak past the Tigers in yet another close one: Alabama 24, LSU 20.
Sam Khan Jr.: This game is usually nip-and-tuck, and I expect that to be the case again Saturday. It can truly go either way. I'm expecting heavy doses of Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette and hard-hitting defensive performances on both sides. Both squads' special-teams units draw concern. That brings it to quarterback play. Brandon Harris has never been on a stage this big, so it'll be a challenge on the road against that Alabama front seven. I think Jake Coker makes more plays and leads Alabama to a 23-20 win.
Greg Ostendorf: Can we all agree that Fournette is going to get his? I know Alabama basically has an NFL front seven, but one way or another Fournette will get 100 yards and probably a touchdown. But the reason I like LSU to win 20-17 is that the Tigers have more big-play potential, and in a game where points will be at a premium, one big play might be the difference.
Alex Scarborough: Part of me can't believe I'm writing this, but if this game were in Baton Rouge I'd like Alabama better. But it's not, and Alabama hasn't been the same team at home. I see both defenses playing well, but Leonard Fournette will get his and Alabama's offensive line will allow too much pressure and force Jake Coker into bad decisions. LSU 24, Alabama 21.
Posted on 11/6/15 at 12:54 am to TideSaint
WhatIf Sports via FoxSports
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No. 4 LSU vs. No. 7 Alabama
This piece wouldn't be complete without an SEC showdown. The Tigers and Tide are one-two in the SEC West standings. They are also both coming off of a bye week. Though this battle has been lopsided (Alabama is 49-24 against LSU and has won the last three matchups), the Tigers actually do better when playing in Alabama. LSU is 16-22-2 in all LSU/Bama games played in the Heart of Dixie. Potential Heisman candidate Leonard Fournette has tallied 1,352 rushing yards with 15 rushing TDs. Both stats lead the nation among running backs. He has rushed for at least 150 yards and one score in each game this season. As a freshman, he only managed 79 rushing yards on 21 carries (3.8 yards per attempt) and was held out of the end zone against the Tide in 2014. That could be the reason why the computer projected an Alabama win 52.5 percent of the time by an average score of 24.2-22.9.
Posted on 11/6/15 at 12:57 am to TideSaint
Athlon Sports
Steve Lassan - Alabama
Mitch Light - Alabama
David Fox - Alabama
Braden Gall - Alabama
Mark Ross - LSU
Steve Lassan - Alabama
Mitch Light - Alabama
David Fox - Alabama
Braden Gall - Alabama
Mark Ross - LSU
Posted on 11/6/15 at 1:05 am to TideSaint
CBS Sports
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It's not really possible for a collision between a Les Miles LSU team and a Nick Saban Alabama team to be anything less than than must-see college football TV. But with so much at stake: the Tigers at No. 2 and barreling towards Miles' first SEC West crown since 2011 and the Tide No. 4 and hellbent on reclaiming everything that seemed lost after the Ohio State and Ole Miss losses ...
... well, "must-see" doesn't even cover it, does it?
When: Saturday, Nov. 7, 8 p.m. ET | Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium -- Tuscaloosa, Ala.
On the call: Verne Lundquist (play-by-play), Gary Danielson (color commentary), Allie LaForce (sideline)
History: 80th meeting; Alabama leads the all-time series 49-25-5. The Tigers have won 11 of the past 20, however.
Line: Alabama -6.5 | O/U: 47.5
At stake: Squint a bit, and yes, you can bill this as an elimination game for both the SEC and national championships. If it loses Saturday, is Alabama winning the West after falling an effective three games behind LSU? Is it getting a playoff bid as a two-loss team without so much as a division title? No and no.
LSU would be in far better shape after a loss in Bryant-Denny -- an 11-1 Tigers team with wins over Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Mississippi State (and its only defeat on the road at Alabama) would be a lock for the playoff shortlist, with or without a West crown. (That goes double given how highly the committee seems to value SEC West teams). And if the Tigers can get past Ole Miss in Oxford, they wouldn't be out of the SEC hunt, either, needing the Tide to slip up just once at Mississippi State or Auburn to claim the division.
But that's the thing: the Tide have played entirely too well on the road this season to expect them to lose to the likes of the Bulldogs or Tigers, and as of now the likelihood of undefeated or one-loss conference champions in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12 (not to mention the thorny problem of a potentially 11-1 Notre Dame) is too great to think an SEC team other than the SEC champion is getting a playoff bid. It's not certain LSU's only path to a national title runs through Alabama ... but it's damn probable.
Storyline: LSU has come teeth-grindingly close to pulling off major upsets of the Tide multiple times in recent seasons, obscuring the fact Miles hasn't actually beaten Saban since the 9-6 "Game of the Century" in 2011 -- a game for which Saban got the quickest, sweetest revenge possible in the BCS title game later that season. With the Tigers entering November undefeated for the first time since 2011 and higher-ranked than at any point since early 2012, this looms as Miles' best opportunity yet to get his own modicum of revenge for his New Orleans BCS disaster and all the Tide-inflicted pain since. Can he seize it?
Breaking it down
Advantage Alabama -- pass defense vs. LSU: Did you know that Brandon Harris hasn't thrown an interception all season? That since going 4-of-14 for 80 yards against Eastern Michigan, Harris has gone 42-for-68 (62 percent) for 10.5 yards-an-attempt and seven touchdowns over his last three games? That he's now the second-most efficient passer in the SEC? Even if the Tide front seven slows down Leonard Fournette, their job won't be done by a long shot.
But the good news for the Tide is that they seem well-equipped to get that job done, regardless. Led by revelatory corner Minkah Fitzpatrick and safety Eddie Jackson, Football Outsiders' S&P+ ranks the Tide as the nation's No. 1 pass defense, helped in part by a formerly on-again-off-again pass rush leading the SEC in sacks. Harris is better than you think. But games like the Eastern Michigan performance suggest he still has work to do, and on the road against this pass defense this is the worst possible situation in which to get that work done.
Advantage LSU -- pass defense vs. Alabama: It's not exactly breaking insight to call these teams mirror images of each other; there's a reason four of their past 10 regular-season meetings have gone to overtime, and another three of those meetings decided by a touchdown or less. But it's true all the same: you're looking at two teams with pulverizing ground games led by All-American-caliber tailbacks, explosive-when-called-on passing attacks led by quarterbacks that aren't quite All-American-caliber, and stacked defenses that on paper simply don't have genuine "weak spots."
But there are some minor differences; Alabama's front seven might be a shade more immovable even than LSU's, and -- given Jake Coker's play at home thus far in 2015 -- the Tigers might still hope to get the steadier quarterback play. Coker's posted a 9-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in Bryant-Denny Stadium as opposed to 2-to-0 away from home, and averaged only 6.7 yards per-attempt vs. 8.7 elsewhere. And LSU's pass defense is statistically near-indistinguishable from Alabama's, ranking fifth in pass defense S&P+ behind star safeties Jamal Adams and Jalen Mills.
To condense the previous four paragraphs into one: both quarterbacks have an enormous test in front of them, one they must take given the quality of the respective rush defenses. Whichever passes will win the game.
Advantage TBD -- home- or road-field advantage: Coker's play in Tuscaloosa goes some way towards explaining a curious phenomenon: the Crimson Tide have hands-down been a better team away from home in 2015. Their three road-netural games have ended with the Tide covering all three spreads by an average of 15.8 points; their five home games have ended with the Tide failing to cover all five spreads, by an average of 7.2 points.
Some of that is flukiness (see the turnover-fueled points scored by Ole Miss and Arkansas) and some of it is just unusually poor play that's only seemed to strike Alabama at home (see rushing for under three yards-a-carry against both Arkansas and Tennessee). It goes without saying, but to say it anyway: if Alabama plays as far below its ceiling at it has in its previous home dates, it's not beating LSU.
One stat to know: To hear people talk about the abundance of talent on these rosters, you'd expect them to finish 1-2 in number of players on NFL rosters. That's because they are 1-2 in number of players on NFL rosters; according to STATS Inc., as of Nov. 4 LSU leads all college football programs with 42 ex-Tigers in the NFL ranks, with Alabama second with 39.
The prediction: A fifth overtime game in 11 years would surely set some kind of record, but don't put it past these teams -- it's strength against strength, relative weakness vs. relative weakness, and a low-scoring white-knuckler along the lines of 2011, 2012 or 2014 meetings shouldn't surprise anyone. In the end, though, LSU is a team that has to have production out of Leonard Fournette to make its offense work, and there's no team or coaching staff in the country better suited to grind that production to a halt than Alabama. If Harris can indeed outplay Coker, it's advantage LSU, but with the game away from Baton Rouge, the sophomore has to prove he can do that first. Alabama 19, LSU 17.
Posted on 11/6/15 at 1:09 am to TideSaint
CBS Sports (individual picks)
Dennis Dodd - LSU
Jon Solomon - LSU
Jerry Palm - Alabama
Tom Fornelli - LSU
Jerry Hinnen - Alabama
Chip Patterson - LSU
Robby Kalland - Alabama
Public - Alabama (53%)
Dennis Dodd - LSU
Jon Solomon - LSU
Jerry Palm - Alabama
Tom Fornelli - LSU
Jerry Hinnen - Alabama
Chip Patterson - LSU
Robby Kalland - Alabama
Public - Alabama (53%)
Posted on 11/6/15 at 1:16 am to TideSaint
ESPN
Alabama Crimson Tide (-6) vs LSU Tigers
Alabama Crimson Tide (-6) vs LSU Tigers
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Fallica: The Alabama defense has been the most dominant unit I've seen this year and it is well equipped to offset Leonard Fournette. I love how Minkah Fitzpatrick and Eddie Jackson have been making plays all year in the secondary. In its last five games against Alabama, LSU has scored 13, 17, 17, zero and nine points. Do I think Alabama can generate 24 points vs. LSU? Yes, I do. With all the talk of these defenses, big plays in the passing game have proved crucial in this rivalry lately. Dating back to 2011 national championship game, LSU has been an underdog away from home five times and the Tigers haven't won or covered any of them. Four of the losses have come by at least 17 points, including a pair of 21-point losses to the Tide (one in Tuscaloosa, one in the previously mentioned title game). Can LSU win the game? Sure it can. Are the Tigers an attractive underdog? Sure they are. And I can't fault anyone who likes them here, but I'll side with the Tide.
ATS pick: Alabama 28, LSU 17
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Coughlin: For the first time since 2009, I will not be on the sidelines for what is one of my favorite games of the year, every year. This year the teams square off in Tuscaloosa, which makes me miss it a little less, but that's just because Baton Rouge is my favorite campus in the country. Let's get to the game. It's pretty simple for me -- what do you expect from Brandon Harris, the LSU quarterback? I don't expect much, simply because I just don't see it. He's ninth in the conference in completion percentage and 11th in passing passing yards. Yes, I know, he's so low because of the success of the ground game. But as you know from my previous feelings, this Alabama front seven is unreal and I don't see the LSU offense doing much on a Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. Hey, be happy LSU fans. I'm picking against your Tigers ... again.
ATS pick: Alabama 24, LSU 13
Posted on 11/6/15 at 1:23 am to TideSaint
SEC Country
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Long considered one of the most pivotal games on the college football calendar, nearly every fan around the country is looking forward to Saturday’s contest between LSU and Alabama. SEC Country is no different. As the date approaches, our staff of writers has made its picks on who will win one of the biggest SEC games of the season.
Here’s what we’re thinking:
Alec Shirkey: Alabama
Leonard Fournette is on the fast-track to becoming a college football legend (his offensive line is pretty good, too), but even those talented men could have a tough time against a stout Alabama front seven in Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Tide will come out on top in the sort of classic low-scoring, grind-it-out game we’ve seen so often between these two schools.
Dave Hooker: Alabama
Both coaches had an extra week to prepare. That should have helped Saban more than Miles. Saban is one of the game’s top tacticians. ‘Bama looked tired against Tennessee in a close win. The Tide will be rejuvenated when they face the Tigers. Of course, the X-factor is Fournette. He’s a once-in-a-generation talent that could further his legacy with a dominating performance.
Alex Martin Smith: Alabama
The Crimson Tide have played poorly at home all year. But they mopped the floor with UGA and Texas A&M in the season’s two most hyped games. Much like 2014, the Tide’s loss to Ole Miss looks more like an anomaly than a harbinger. LSU’s strongest aspect — its running game — will struggle to put up points against an elite ‘Bama “D.”
Jordan James: Alabama
It is hard to envision Alabama allowing LSU Heisman Trophy candidate Fournette to control the game. The Crimson Tide have the players on their defensive line to match up with the LSU offensive front. With two good defenses, this one will come down to quarterback play. It should be close, but at this point I trust Alabama quarterback Jake Coker’s ability to win the game more than LSU’s Brandon Harris. It also helps that Alabama is the home team.
Matt Barbato: Alabama
This game will be more of an aerial affair than many expect. The Tigers and Crimson Tide both rank in the top six nationally in stopping the run. Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry will churn yardage because they’re that good. However, this game will come down to pass defense. The Tigers have suffered a handful of coverage lapses throughout the season and have surrendered 222.1 passing yards per game. Plus their top corner, Tre’Davious White, might not be 100 percent. Alabama wins the most physical game of the college football season by a slim margin.
Scott McDonald: LSU
Both teams are well coached and have freakish talent. Miles and Saban have gone to overtime three times against oneother and played to four points or fewer two other times. Miles has been known for pulling a rabbit out of his hat during games like these. Don’t be surprised to see LSU’s special teams win this one.
Sam Spiegelman: LSU
While I find it hard to believe Alabama will lose two games this season — both at home, by the way — I can’t help but consider LSU the superior team. Given a week off to refocus and get healthy, LSU can pound the rock with Fournette and come up with a game plan for this stout Alabama defense. Additionally, how many SEC games can we say LSU actually has an edge at the quarterback position? I believe that goes in the Tigers’ favor in this one.
Grace Raynor: Alabama
The Crimson Tide certainly have a tall order in trying to contain Fournette. There’s absolutely no doubt that Fournette is a force to be reckoned with. But Alabama is hungry to snap LSU’s undefeated streak and know it can’t afford to lose two games this season. With the home crowd going nuts in Tuscaloosa, Ala. the Tide win this one.
KJ Hiramoto: Alabama
It’s hard to picture Leonard Fournette getting slowed down by any defense, given the monster season he’s had. But Alabama’s front seven is loaded with future NFL talent, so it wouldn’t be a shock if ‘Bama “contains” Fournette to fewer than 150 rushing yards. And if quarterback Coker can limit turnovers for Alabama ? which may seem like a tall order, given his struggles at home ? the Crimson Tide should come away with a win.
Kaitlin Long: Alabama
The Crimson Tide have home-field advantage and their scoring defense ranks third in the country. Yes, Fournette is one of the most talented running backs in college football, but Alabama’s defense knows how to win games. Tailback Derrick Henry will take care of the rest on offense. Alabama has dominated this series, and with the position it’s in for the College Football Playoff, the Tide won’t be backed down.
Connor Smolensky: Alabama
All the talk this week surrounds Fournette and Henry. The two are arguably the top running backs in the nation, but this one could come down to quarterback play. LSU’s Harris and Alabama’s Coker have had up-and-down seasons, and neither have much big-game experience. I give Coker the slight edge. If this game comes down to a two-minute drill–and it very well could– I want Coker leading an offense down the field over Harris.
Jordan Burton: Alabama
Saban lives for games like this, so does Alabama. The Tide will be too much with an extra week to gameplan for Fournette and will figure out how to make Harris win the game with his arm. Alabama loves playing pro-style offenses and that highly-touted front seven, led by Lombardi and Butkus Award semifinalist Reggie Ragland will be up to the task of stopping Fournette. This will also be another huge game for Henry, which could shift the balance of the Heisman Trophy talk. Tide roll and it won’t be close.
David Collier: Alabama
LSU has been impressive this season, but the Tigers leave a lot to be desired. Fournette will gain yards and make a big play or two, but to me, this one comes down to quarterback play and defense. Coker has proved he can be more of a threat than Harris, and the Crimson Tide’s defense is better. As long as Lane Kiffin keeps running the ball, Alabama will control the game throughout.
Posted on 11/6/15 at 1:27 am to TideSaint
Harris is going to get more pressure this game, hopfully he throws a few picks.
Thanks for the write up/posts.
Thanks for the write up/posts.
Posted on 11/6/15 at 1:27 am to TideSaint
Recruits' Predictions via SEC Country
Ben Davis had me like:
quote:
In a game with College Football Playoff implications and a showdown that could possibly decide the SEC West, No. 2 LSU will take on No. 4 Alabama Saturday night in Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Ahead of the SEC showdown, SEC Country polled a handful of LSU and Alabama commits and targets to see who they think is going to come out on top.
Check out their predictions below.
Ben Davis, 2016 nation’s No. 1 inside linebacker and son of Alabama’s all-time leading tackler, Wayne Davis (uncommitted) — “LSU wins 24-21. I think it’s going to be a low scoring game. It’s going to come down to which defense plays the best.”
Mecole Hardman, 2016 nation’s No. 1 athlete (uncommitted) — “I got Alabama over LSU. I believe Alabama’s run defense is going to be the difference, and LSU is run heavy.”
DeAngelo Gibbs, 2017 5-star cornerback (uncommitted) — “Bama wins by 14. Defense wins games and Bama has been playing great defense lately.”
Nate McBride, 2017 4-star linebacker (uncommitted) — “I’m not sure. It’s going to be a single-digit game, though. I’m excited to watch it.”
Jaden Hunter, 2017 4-star linebacker (uncommitted) — “It’ll be a good game, but I don’t know who will win.”
Patrick Surtain, Jr., 2018 4-star cornerback (uncommitted) — “It’s going to be a good defensive battle and it’s going to come down to the wire. I’ll say the game is going to play out how it did in 2011. LSU wins, 9-6.”
B.J. Emmons, 2016 4-star running back (Alabama commit) — “I don’t have a prediction. It’s just going to be a good game.”
Miller Forristall, 2016 3-star tight end (Alabama commit) — “Bama will win 24-14. Bama’s ability to control the line of scrimmage will be the deciding factor.”
Jake Fromm, 2017 4-star quarterback (Alabama commit) — “I think it’s going to be a great game with an unreal atmosphere, and I believe if (Jake) Coker has a good game Alabama, will pull it out by a touchdown.”
Cam Akers, 2017 4-star running back (Alabama commit) — “A win is a prediction. I don’t have a specific score, though.”
Xavier McKinney, 2017 4-star safety (Alabama commit) — “21-17 Alabama. LSU has a great offense, but I think Alabama has one of the best defensive cores that’s in the game. I think all they have to do is shut down (Leonard) Fournette and then LSU will run out of options.”
Netori Johnson, 2017 4-star offensive lineman (Alabama commit) — “ ‘Bama will win 38-35 because I know they can stop to pass, but I think they may have a problem with the run but Leonard Fournette won’t be able to do everything, and when they shut him down, they will win.”
Tre Swilling, 2017 3-star defensive back (uncommitted) — “’Bama 21-14.”
Bruce Jordan-Swilling, 2017 4-star athlete (uncommitted) — “LSU, 21-19”
Devonta Jason, 2018 4-star wide receiver (LSU commit) — “LSU, 17-10”
Ben Davis had me like:
Posted on 11/6/15 at 6:47 am to TideSaint
Great job Saint. Thanks.
Posted on 11/6/15 at 8:22 am to TideSaint
quote:
Alabama win 52.5 percent of the time by an average score of 24.2-22.9.
good lord
Posted on 11/6/15 at 9:15 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
quote:
Alabama win 52.5 percent of the time by an average score of 24.2-22.9.
good lord
You know, because science, and shite.
Posted on 11/6/15 at 9:19 am to Tuskkman
quote:
Harris is going to get more pressure this game, hopfully he throws a few picks
Harris is due for some picks. Remember how everyone was talking about how good of a season that Lambert (Georgia) and Allen (A&M) were having before they meet Bama. A true sophomore with really only 8 or 9 games under his belt vs Bama's defense. I'm going with Bama's D on this one.
Posted on 11/6/15 at 9:44 am to remaster916
And LSU really only throws to their 2 WR's. Of course, they haven't had to throw the ball much this season, which should change tomorrow. Fournette is going to get his yards. He's just too good not to. Got to keep him from breaking big runs, and keep him out of the end zone, then force Harris to make some plays.
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