Bama vs Wisconsin football stuff (it's game week boys and girls!)

from BOL guy

I wasn't planning to do much of anything, but a couple of people (on BOL and in person) asked me to, so here's what I got. Keep in mind, this is a for-fun sort of rambling analysis; I'm a numbers guy, and that doesn't really translate to the preseason. Anyway, here are my musings (SEC focused) for the upcoming season.

-A few thoughts on the quarterback battle:
--First, I'm not the right person to give any deep analysis, as I haven't seen a single snap in fall camp. What I can try to do is comment a bit on quarterbacking in general.
--The first thing I'll note is that it's quite possible to get excellent production from an inconsistent quarterback with a live arm. Jarrett Lee was a guy who couldn't read a defense to save his life. But, in 2011, LSU used Lee's strong arm to create a powerful play-action passing game off the run. Lee's 152 QBR from 2011 would have just edged out Dak Prescott from this past season.
--Second, there's a bit of a false dichotomy in terms of youth vs. experience going around. Some people talk about "play to win today," others, "play the new guy, take your lumps this year." But, there's a third option: play the guy who will win in October. JT Barrett was less than stellar last year in week 2 versus Virginia Tech, but, come the end of the season, he was phenomenal. Though I expect Coker to start for Wisconsin, the staff has to be giving some serious thought to who will be the best player to get us through our stretch run in October.
--Finally, expect the offense to change. Something we forget is that we opened the season as a -huddling- tempo team. Kiffin prefers to run the huddle, have pro-style, complicated plays, and ask the quarterback to check a bit. Despite how much you sometimes here "Sims was perfect for what they did," the truth was, Kiffin made what we did perfect for Sims. But I would expect to see some very different things stylistically this year, especially if we have an inconsistent, big-armed quarterback (see Lee above). The play card experiment was one thing, but, considering our strengths (the run and defense), I expect us to take the tempo back down a little more and play some power football.
--My general belief over the past few years (dating back to 2013) is that our corner play has been our Achilles heel. However, in my humble opinion, it's often been an issue of size more than technique. In the opener, Sylve gave us quality reps, but just couldn't high point the ball over the towering White. Then, against Mizzou, our corners were again thrown past. Further, a huge key to several losses (Oklahoma and Auburn in 2013, for example) it has been an inability to stop the /run/ that has killed us on the perimeter. Sylve is just too small, and Smith has really struggled to get off blocks. Unfortunately, the taller options (Brown and Jackson) have been a liability deep. If Humphrey and Fitzpatrick step up, I feel it will be the increase in size against the pass and especially against the run that will make the biggest impact.
--To toot my own horn a bit, I mentioned in the runup to last year that Cyrus compared favorably to the progression Javy took in his career. Here's to hoping it continues, and Cyrus ends up an all-star player.

-Thoughts on Auburn:
--Auburn is all about the offense. Yeah, they have Muschamp, but it's not like Ellis Johnson was considered a loser (nor Vangorder before him). The first issue is simply talent. Auburn, while having good defensive lines, has been very poor in the back 7. I believe the other side has been practice style. Many overlook the fact that Malzahn prefers to practice with minimal contact, and with a focus on offensive tempo. That has to make it hard for the defense to get quality reps, and I think it shows on the field.
--If I were an Auburn fan, my concern would be on a running game that's losing a lot of crucial pieces. Their 2013 team used Prosch as a lead blocker for a powerful zone running game. In 2014, Uzomah and Fulse tepped up into h-back roles, and they continued their sweep game. Now, without Uzomah, Fulse, Grant, Marshall, or Artis-Payne, all the pieces of the power zone play are gone. Everyone looks at Marshall, but Uzomah, Fulse, and Grant are just as importantt. Uzomah and Fulse allowed Auburn to line up in a wide variety of formation to leverage good pass catchers as blockers. It's tough on the defender lined up opposite of Uzomah and Fulse, as they were either too small for the run or too big for the pass. Plus, Auburn could run anything from a 4-wide to a 2-TE set from the same personnel.
--This year, Auburn has only freshmen to use at FB. Malzahn himself noted in camp that the position was one of his greatest worries. Add the loss of your two leading rushers, and Auburn (who ran that power zone over and over and over the last two years) will need a new bag of tricks.
--This gets to the passing game. Johnson may be a great passer. He may not be. But I do know that he only has one returning starter at WR in Duke, and (many miss this) Louis will be needed to fill Corey Grant's role as a sweep back if they want to keep that part of their playbook. Johnson may well be better, and not have much to show for it.
--Take these two QBs:
QB1 - Soph - 36/48 (75%) 410 yards 7 TDs 0 INTs
QB2 - Soph - 28/37 (76%) 436 yards 3 TDs 0 INTs
--QB1? John Brantley in 2009. Heralded as the next big thing going into 2010 after backing up (and starting for an injured) Tim Tebow in 2009. However, Brantley would ultimately come to be known generally as a failure.
--The point here is that you just can't say anything, one way or another, until the pads start popping on a big stage. I'm not going to criticize Johnson, as I haven't seen him, but I strongly caution against those praising him, because you haven't seen him either. Even if he /is/ better, I doubt it shows too much for the reasons above.
--All that said, they should be more talented on defense. The return of Lawson, addition of Matthews at S, and maturity of their LBs should pay dividends. However, the loss of Wright, Blackson and Bradley really hurts their depth, and they will likely be susceptible against the run. Further, don't overlook that they lost 3/6 in their nickel. The media tends to miss when this happens... Therezie (the "Star") isn't part of the 4-3, so his loss doesn't show up on a lot of sheets (Athlon only shows 2 CBs, for example). But, in a nickel, they have minimal depth, and they may well have to start a freshman.
--For those of you looking for Auburn to lose to Louisville, personally, I wouldn't bother. Louisville lost as many players to the draft last year as they had the prior 7 years /combined/. They are just totally depleted. For example, they lost 7 of their top 9 receivers. Mentally prepare yourself for Auburn to thump them, and to hear a lot of chest thumping as a result. If Auburn doesn't thump them, it's a REALLY bad sign.

-Thoughts on Arkansas
--I'm just not that high on these guys.
--They have a good offensive line and a strong run game, but they probably will feel the loss of Williams pretty badly.
--Offensively, I just don't see them getting much better. Allen improved tremendously last year, but 2/3 leading receivers were tight ends, a sure sign that you aren't running a /real/ passing game. They just don't have any receivers you're scared of, and that's not a good thing in this league.
--The bigger issue is on defense. Arkansas had a hot end to last year shutting out LSU and Ole Miss. Much of that was due to Arkansas's disruptive front, with 3 players (Flowers, Philon, and Spaight) in double digit TFL. None return.
--Everyone seems to be overlooking the loss of Spaight. He has 127 tackles last year, about double anyone else. To put it in perspective, CJ Mosley had 107 in 2012. Considering the poor recruiting Arkansas had under Petrino and Smith, I think their defense may take a step back.
--If their defense takes a step back, (considering the injury to Williams) I doubt the offense can keep pace.

Hell yeah, missed this stuff!!

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