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#1 Alabama vs Arkansas - Statistical Prediction Model
Posted on 10/12/17 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 10/12/17 at 12:57 pm
#1 ALABAMA (-30) VS ARKANSAS (O/U 54)
ALABAMA - 49
ARKANSAS - 10
ALABAMA
Pass Yards : 152
Rush Yards : 324
Total Yards : 476
YPP : 6.61
ARKANSAS
Pass Yards : 145
Rush Yards : 92
Total Yards : 237
YPP : 3.95
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ALABAMA - 49
ARKANSAS - 10
ALABAMA
Pass Yards : 152
Rush Yards : 324
Total Yards : 476
YPP : 6.61
ARKANSAS
Pass Yards : 145
Rush Yards : 92
Total Yards : 237
YPP : 3.95
[/img]This post was edited on 10/12/17 at 12:58 pm
5
Posted on 10/12/17 at 1:28 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Did you used to make YouTube videos with this model?
Posted on 10/12/17 at 1:30 pm to Kcoyote
quote:
Did you used to make YouTube videos with this model?
No, I think there are some other guys who do something like that. Theirs is probably more complex. Mine isn't anything more than averaging performance to date against the opponents averages then applying that to the next opponents averages.
I did it some last year but just posted them here.
This post was edited on 10/12/17 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 10/12/17 at 8:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
What did this say last week about the game with aTm?
Posted on 10/12/17 at 9:40 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
What did this say last week about the game with aTm?
Didn't run it until this week because you really can't get much without a lot of P5 games.
I did a general one for A&M but not nearly to this detail (mainly because it was still a week or two too early to do it).
Posted on 10/15/17 at 3:15 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Predicted
Score
Alabama 49, Arkansas 10
Yardage
Alabama 476 (6.61 YPP)
Arkansas 237 (3.95 YPP)
Actual
Score
Alabama 41, Arkansas 9
Yardage
Alabama 496 (7.75 YPP)
Arkansas 227 (3.15 YPP)
THE ALMOST PERFECT SYSTEM IS BORN. IGNORE THE AUBURN-LSU GAME.
Score
Alabama 49, Arkansas 10
Yardage
Alabama 476 (6.61 YPP)
Arkansas 237 (3.95 YPP)
Actual
Score
Alabama 41, Arkansas 9
Yardage
Alabama 496 (7.75 YPP)
Arkansas 227 (3.15 YPP)
THE ALMOST PERFECT SYSTEM IS BORN. IGNORE THE AUBURN-LSU GAME.
Posted on 10/15/17 at 3:34 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 10/15/17 at 5:03 pm to UASports23
Posted on 10/15/17 at 7:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
What program/methodology are you using here?
Posted on 10/15/17 at 7:15 pm to Ted2010
quote:
What program/methodology are you using here?
A specialty blend of spices created by SOG.
Really it's just a team's average YPP Rush/Pass vs P5 teams, comparing that to the weekly opponents (their past opponents) and then seeing how they performed compared to their opponents averages. Then, that is applied to the upcoming opponent to give an idea of how they might perform +/- in YPP. Then you get an idea of # of plays and points per play, and wallah.
It was dead on for UA/Arky, generally predicted the type of game UF/A&M would be (guessed too many plays) and wasn't close on AU/LSU (but I blame that on Gus being a tight a-hole fricker).
It's not perfect but it gives a decent idea of where the game will go if both teams play to their "normal" form.
Posted on 10/16/17 at 10:15 am to SummerOfGeorge
So where is the one for Bama vs Tennessee? Don't tease us and leave us hanging!
Posted on 10/16/17 at 12:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Damn summer....
Posted on 10/16/17 at 12:14 pm to phil4bama
Inputting the Tennessee vs Alabama data now..............BUILD THE ANTICIPATION
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