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Severe weather Monday-Tuesday across most of the SEC
Posted on 10/13/14 at 7:41 am
Posted on 10/13/14 at 7:41 am
Stay safe out there SEC!
Tomorrow...
Tomorrow...
3
Posted on 10/13/14 at 7:58 am to NorthEndZone
Good call.
The skinny is there's a stout cold front blowing in from the planes. There's a low pressure coming with it located generally in Oklahoma at the moment based on the radar. Warm gulf air is rushing up into the Arklatex to greet the new cold air masters.
Should present as a squall line and within that line there is a hail risk, straight-line wind, and isolated tornado risk.
Keep an eye out for any cells that form in front of the squall line. As is the norm, those warm sector cells have the greatest risk of producing stronger tornadoes. Just be aware, this shouldn't be like a spring outbreak but the dynamics are there for someone to get some violent weather today.
The skinny is there's a stout cold front blowing in from the planes. There's a low pressure coming with it located generally in Oklahoma at the moment based on the radar. Warm gulf air is rushing up into the Arklatex to greet the new cold air masters.
Should present as a squall line and within that line there is a hail risk, straight-line wind, and isolated tornado risk.
Keep an eye out for any cells that form in front of the squall line. As is the norm, those warm sector cells have the greatest risk of producing stronger tornadoes. Just be aware, this shouldn't be like a spring outbreak but the dynamics are there for someone to get some violent weather today.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 10:56 am to Duke
I'm drivin back to Memphis from orange beach right in the middle of it 
Posted on 10/13/14 at 11:03 am to Duke
Ready for a good storm.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 11:05 am to Wishnitwas1998
Be very careful.
There are some cells already firing off ahead of the squall line about to enter the Delta. Given the winds picked up out of the SE around here, there will likely be enough shear to make tornadoes happen in those cells. Squall line is nasty too.
There are some cells already firing off ahead of the squall line about to enter the Delta. Given the winds picked up out of the SE around here, there will likely be enough shear to make tornadoes happen in those cells. Squall line is nasty too.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 11:12 am to Rebelgator
quote:
Ready for a good storm.
Me too. You should get your wish up Memphis way. It's lined up in Arkansas now. As I told wish, some of those cells out front are likely to drop some tornadoes. As typical for this situation, it's really windy out of of the SE here and from the morning sounding (NWS weather balloon taking data) the mid levels have flow from the SW. That makes things spin.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 11:15 am to Duke
quote:
likely to drop some tornadoes
I'll pass on those.
I'll take some extra lightning though. Looks cool coming across the river.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 11:18 am to Rebelgator
quote:
I'll take some extra lightning though. Looks cool coming across the river.
You'll probably get some of that. When that line blows through it should look impressive with your vantage point. I'm jelly. My apartment sits on the NE corner of the building. Won't get a good look at it when it approaches.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 11:20 am to Duke
If I'm home I'll try and snap a picture or two.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 12:04 pm to Duke
Looks like it's moving to the north a lot more than usual
Posted on 10/13/14 at 12:25 pm to Wishnitwas1998
Updated tornado risk map...it's coming...be careful out there
This post was edited on 10/13/14 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 10/13/14 at 12:39 pm to Wishnitwas1998
quote:
Looks like it's moving to the north a lot more than usual
The general motion is from W to E. Storms are moving sharply NE in reaction to powerful SW flow in the mid-levels. There is a SE flow at the surface and that's why you're starting to see tornadoes pop off along the squall line and ahead of it.
The good news is the instability is fairly low. The bad news is the dynamics (wind directions and velocity and the like) are good for some bad storms. I can attest to that. It's ripping out of the SE down in my part of the world. Probably getting gusts up around 30. Not surprised to see the tornado threat up and expanded into northern Mississippi.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 12:51 pm to Duke
Duke, you missed your calling. You should be a meteorologist. Anybody with that depth of interest in the subject should definitely be forecasting for the public.
What do you see for Kentucky?
What do you see for Kentucky?
This post was edited on 10/13/14 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 10/13/14 at 1:00 pm to Kentucker
quote:
Duke, you missed your calling. You should be a meteorologist. Anybody with that depth of interest in the subject should definitely be forecasting for the public.
I'm 26. What's missed? Subjects like fluid dynamics and thermodynamics are central to Chemical Engineering as they are the weather. I'll have the oppertunity should I choose it one day.
For Kentucky, it depends on what side of the state you reside. The risk is certainly there for SW and western Kentucky. The farther east you go, the less risk there will be.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 1:20 pm to Duke
Cool. I'm glad you're considering it.
I'm also glad we're going to miss most of the action here in Lexington. We need some rain but we already got lots of wind damage last week.
I'm also glad we're going to miss most of the action here in Lexington. We need some rain but we already got lots of wind damage last week.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 1:21 pm to NorthEndZone
Looks like I'm gonna be in class right as it starts to hit bad in Oxford
Unfortunately I cannot miss this class at all. There's nothing I love more than watching a good storm.
Worst part right now is everyone in my neighborhood's trash is out right now and usually the trash has come already. The wind is starting to pick up and about to make a mess.
Unfortunately I cannot miss this class at all. There's nothing I love more than watching a good storm.
Worst part right now is everyone in my neighborhood's trash is out right now and usually the trash has come already. The wind is starting to pick up and about to make a mess.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 1:24 pm to Kentucker
Well the probability is you won't catch the really bad stuff but on the small scale it's hard to say for sure. As someone who knows QM that uncertainty should be comfortable to you.
Yes, I have a PChem test tomorrow.
Yes, I have a PChem test tomorrow.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 1:34 pm to Duke
TV guys saying the NWS seems to think it is weakening
Posted on 10/13/14 at 1:39 pm to Wishnitwas1998
Something about this doesn't feel right.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 1:40 pm to Wishnitwas1998
Weakening isn't the best way to state it. The timing seems slow but there's plenty of juice and warning boxes popping up everywhere.
Also we just got our tornado watch.
Also we just got our tornado watch.
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