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AP Top Ten analysis 2012-2014 (weeks 1-7 only)
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:08 pm
2012:
Week 1: #8 Michigan loses to #2 Alabama
Week 2: #10 Arkansas loses to ULM
Week 3: #2 USC loses to #21 Stanford, #10 Michigan State loses to #20 Notre Dame
Week 4: #6 Oklahoma loses to #15 Kansas State, #10 Clemson loses to #4 Florida State
Week 5: #8 Stanford loses to Washington
Week 6: #4 LSU loses to #10 Florida, #3 Florida State loses to N.C. State, #5 Georgia loses to #6 South Carolina
Week 7: #3 South Carolina loses to #9 LSU, #5 West Virginia loses to Texas Tech
2013:
Week 1: #5 Georgia lost to #8 Clemson
Week 2: #6 South Carolina lost to #11 Georgia
Week 3: #6 Texas A&M lost to #1 Alabama
Week 4: None
Week 5: #6 LSU lost to #9 Georgia
Week 6: none
Week 7: #5 Stanford lost to Utah, #7 Georgia lost to #25 Missouri
2014 season
Week 1: #9 South Carolina lost to #21 Texas A&M
Week 2: #7 Michigan State lost to #3 Oregon, #8 Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech
Week 3: #6 Georgia lost to #24 South Carolina, #9 USC lost to Boston College
#1 lost 0 times
#2 lost 1 times
#3 lost 2 times
#4 lost 1 times
#5 lost 4 times
#6 lost 5 times
#7 lost 2 times
#8 lost 8 times
#9 lost 2 times
#10 lost 3 times
This means in terms of top 10 upset this week over an opponent capable of pulling the upset:
Clemson will not beat Florida State
Washington State will not beat Oregon
Florida has about a 12% chance of beating Alabama
Kansas State has about a 24% chance of beating Auburn
SMU has ZERO chance of beating A&M
Baylor has a BYE
Mississippi State has about a 47% chance of beating LSU
Notre Dame and Ole Miss both have bye weeks
Week 1: #8 Michigan loses to #2 Alabama
Week 2: #10 Arkansas loses to ULM
Week 3: #2 USC loses to #21 Stanford, #10 Michigan State loses to #20 Notre Dame
Week 4: #6 Oklahoma loses to #15 Kansas State, #10 Clemson loses to #4 Florida State
Week 5: #8 Stanford loses to Washington
Week 6: #4 LSU loses to #10 Florida, #3 Florida State loses to N.C. State, #5 Georgia loses to #6 South Carolina
Week 7: #3 South Carolina loses to #9 LSU, #5 West Virginia loses to Texas Tech
2013:
Week 1: #5 Georgia lost to #8 Clemson
Week 2: #6 South Carolina lost to #11 Georgia
Week 3: #6 Texas A&M lost to #1 Alabama
Week 4: None
Week 5: #6 LSU lost to #9 Georgia
Week 6: none
Week 7: #5 Stanford lost to Utah, #7 Georgia lost to #25 Missouri
2014 season
Week 1: #9 South Carolina lost to #21 Texas A&M
Week 2: #7 Michigan State lost to #3 Oregon, #8 Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech
Week 3: #6 Georgia lost to #24 South Carolina, #9 USC lost to Boston College
#1 lost 0 times
#2 lost 1 times
#3 lost 2 times
#4 lost 1 times
#5 lost 4 times
#6 lost 5 times
#7 lost 2 times
#8 lost 8 times
#9 lost 2 times
#10 lost 3 times
This means in terms of top 10 upset this week over an opponent capable of pulling the upset:
Clemson will not beat Florida State
Washington State will not beat Oregon
Florida has about a 12% chance of beating Alabama
Kansas State has about a 24% chance of beating Auburn
SMU has ZERO chance of beating A&M
Baylor has a BYE
Mississippi State has about a 47% chance of beating LSU
Notre Dame and Ole Miss both have bye weeks
6
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:11 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
That is pretty interesting, why not use a larger sample size?
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:26 pm to MontyFranklyn
quote:
That is pretty interesting, why not use a larger sample size?
I only used the post-realignment numbers.
I can try to go back 5 years total (2010-2014).
2011
Week 1: #3 Oregon lost to #4 LSU
Week 2: None
Week 3: #5 Florida State lost to #1 Oklahoma
Week 4: #8 Texas A&M lost to #7 Oklahoma State
Week 5: #8 Nebraska lost to #7 Wisconsin, #10 South Carolina lost to Auburn
Week 6: None
Week 7: None
2010 season:
Week 1: #10 Virginia Tech lost to #3 Boise State
Week 2: None
Week 3: #9 Iowa lost to #24 Arizona
Week 4: #7 Texas lost to UCLA, #10 Arkansas lost to #1 Alabama
Week 5: #7 Florida lost to #1 Alabama, #9 Stanford lost to #4 Oregon
Week 6: #1 Alabama lost to #19 South Carolina, #9 Arizona lost to Oregon State
Week 7: #1 Ohio State lost to #18 Wisconsin, #5 Nebraska lost to Texas, #10 South Carolina lost to Kentucky
Add
2 losses to #1
0 losses to #2
1 loss to #3
1 loss to #4
3 losses to #5
0 losses to #6
2 losses to #7
2 losses to #8
2 losses to #9
4 loss to #10
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:28 pm to MontyFranklyn
From what I have seen I don't think WSU beats Oregon. Not unless Oregon just completely jumps the track in such a way that the rest of the FBS just stands back and watches in a mix of horror and joy as the Duck's season spirals into a Cronenbergish hell.
MSU vs LSU is your best bet for an upset and even then I am not convinced the Bulldogs have the offensive firepower to knock off LSU.
If SMU beats Texas A&M... well we have entered the end of days. I will be too busy going to church six times a day to make fun of the Aggies.
MSU vs LSU is your best bet for an upset and even then I am not convinced the Bulldogs have the offensive firepower to knock off LSU.
If SMU beats Texas A&M... well we have entered the end of days. I will be too busy going to church six times a day to make fun of the Aggies.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:31 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Adding that to the 2012-2014 numbers:
#1 lost 2 times
#2 lost 1 times
#3 lost 3 times
#4 lost 2 times
#5 lost 7 times
#6 lost 5 times
#7 lost 4 times
#8 lost 10 times
#9 lost 4 times
#10 lost 7 times
Updating the math, and using an opponent with a chance of winning:
Clemson has a 7% chance of beating Florida State
Washington State has a 3% chance of beating Oregon
Florida has a 10% chance of beating Alabama
West Virginia has a 7% chance of beating Oklahoma
Kansas State has a 23% chance of beating Auburn
SMU has ZERO chance of beating A&M
Baylor has a BYE
Mississippi State has a 33% chance of beating LSU
Notre Dame and Ole Miss both have BYEs
#1 lost 2 times
#2 lost 1 times
#3 lost 3 times
#4 lost 2 times
#5 lost 7 times
#6 lost 5 times
#7 lost 4 times
#8 lost 10 times
#9 lost 4 times
#10 lost 7 times
Updating the math, and using an opponent with a chance of winning:
Clemson has a 7% chance of beating Florida State
Washington State has a 3% chance of beating Oregon
Florida has a 10% chance of beating Alabama
West Virginia has a 7% chance of beating Oklahoma
Kansas State has a 23% chance of beating Auburn
SMU has ZERO chance of beating A&M
Baylor has a BYE
Mississippi State has a 33% chance of beating LSU
Notre Dame and Ole Miss both have BYEs
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:34 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Don't be #8, got it.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:39 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
How do you get 0 for smu?
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:44 pm to Kritten
Auby on the road in a Thursday night game. Okie on the road to BFE west virginia. Oregon on the road to the desert of eastern Washington. I will take one of these 3 having the best chances to be upset this week.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:46 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Mississippi State has about a 47% chance of beating LSU
If we use the last 22 meetings as a sample size Mississippi State has a 4.5% chance of winning.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:55 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Why are we counting losses to higher ranked teams? (#8 Michigan loses to #2 Alabama)
Posted on 9/14/14 at 5:29 pm to GRTiger
5/30 = 16.7%, but the math only counts when the opponent has a realistic chance.
SMU is the worst team in FBS by far, their coach just resigned, and their starting QB is injured. Shut out by Baylor and would have been shut out by North Texas were it not for a hail mary on the final play.
Add to that an A&M team coming off a bad game and the chances are miniscule.
SMU is the worst team in FBS by far, their coach just resigned, and their starting QB is injured. Shut out by Baylor and would have been shut out by North Texas were it not for a hail mary on the final play.
Add to that an A&M team coming off a bad game and the chances are miniscule.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 5:30 pm to The Boat
Correct, but #8 has been the most vulnerable in the first half of the season over the last 5 years.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 5:30 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Thanks for gathering this. Very interesting.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 6:02 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
CGSC Lobotomy
Fairly interesting. But rather than use weeks 1-7 why not use weeks 5-12? Using weeks 5-12 would really tell us something.
Posted on 9/14/14 at 6:32 pm to scrooster
Anything after week 8 is meaningless, as that's been the first BCS poll.
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