SIAP: CFBMatrix's "Bounce back to bowl eligible" - SEC Edition

Without a doubt my favorite go to website/analyst on everything encompassing CFB and the statistics that are driving it. For all you guys that enjoy numbers, percentages, and a proven(as much as statistically possible) method of judging expected win/loss totals and swings. For anybody that is active with Vegas, this is another great resource to use prior to taking the spreads.

Method: How he predicts Wins & Losses for the upcoming season using the CFBMatrix

Teams rising 2+ games and making bowl elgibility

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Arkansas Razorbacks: 2014 CFBMatrix talent rank #28 The brutal fact facing Arkansas is they are the worst recruiter in the best division college football. 2013 was really not a poor year overall. It was just one game less than their talent and schedule projected in the CFBMatrix. They are a top 30 recruiter but #7 in the SEC West. If the SEC goes to 9 conference games in the future, bowl eligibility for teams like Arkansas will be much harder to achieve. Coach Bielma was a plus one and half game coach per year at Wisconsin. That means he averages winning 1.5 games per year more than his schedule and recruited talent projected. In the Big Ten that is 7,8,9+ win seasons. At Arkansas, that puts you at 5.5 wins. I do expect them to bounce back in 2014 because they are talented and he has proven to be a very good coach in the past. 77% of their offense production is returning and 71% of their key defensive production is back on the field as well. However, 6-6 is a not easy. To get there they need to sweep all 4 OOCs [@Texas Tech] and split with @ A&M (n), Ole Miss, @ Mississippi State and @ Missouri.

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Florida Gators: 2014 CFBMatrix talent rank #4 It’s not the talent. It’s not the schedule. The only possible way you could not like the Gators to improve is if you hate their coaching so much you have no faith in them. They had an historically bad season as no team in the era of the 12 game regular-season had gone from 11-1 all the way down to 3-9. This program has been a top 10 recruiter for this entire century. Attrition has been normal and the talent is still elite. They had one of the worst experiences of injuries for a single-season in quite some time with over 70 starts lost to injury. I cannot give you any reason but coaching to keep this team from 7,8 or more wins. The pattern for Coach Muschamp, like Lane Kiffin at USC, are talented teams. Going up against top 20 recruiters, he is 4-11. This year they match up with 6 of those profiles. They must take care of business with the other 6 and go 2-4 with the more talented team to reach as still disappointing 8-4.

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----Last 4 out of 2+ game win swing----

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Tennessee Volunteers: I don’t have a lot of confidence in the numbers for the Vols. This is a team I have targeted to break out in 2015. The 2014 schedule is tough early and the Vols lose their entire O-Line. Coach Jones was very good at Cincinnati and the recruiting at Tennessee, as expected, has improved immensely. But one good class doesn’t make a turn around. The Volunteers are coming off a 5-7 year and they return only 57% of their offensive statistics and only 51% of their key defensive production. They get 8 home games but the road tilts are all loses. 6-6 is expected but its a stretch to expect +2 game improvement to 7-5. #BrickbyBrick

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Dave Bartoo's SEC teams that he expects to miss bowl eligibility for the 2014 season: Kentucky & Vanderbilt.

Falling Expectations - Win totals in 2014

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Regression. No fan of a sports team likes this word. It means a lot of things to a lot of people but every year it happens. Injuries, scheduling, focus, coaching changes but no matter we do, as fans we want our team to avoid the unavoidable as every season ‘regression’ rears it’s ugly head to strike teams down.

With only 66 Big 5 conference teams, taking a top 10 or top 15 to take a step back virtually assures some degree of success. In a 12 game season, winning 8 then winning 7 is not really a step back. Heck, that might be a bad bounce or a schedule difference. Look at Stanford in 2014. 4 critical games all at home in 2013 are all on the road in 2014. What may be a nearly equal team in talent could be 4 more losses in the L column in 2014. This year’s group of teams I identified, over performed their talent and schedule in 2013 or have seen a major scheduling challenge present itself in 2014.

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Vanderbilt Commodores: I don’t think I can overstate how big of a coach effect James Franklin had on Vanderbilt in the three years he was in Nashville. An absolutely phenomenal Snyder the White type of wizardry. Even though he strongly over performed the talent he had in Vanderbilt, it was still a long ways off from even contending for a division title. With average coaching over the last three years and that schedule, Vanderbilt was at best a four or five win team. With the departure of Coach Franklin to Penn State, Vanderbilt’s recruiting class for 2014 has gone down the tubes. Only 50% of the key offense of metrics and 58% of the key defenses performance metrics are returning to play next year in Nashville. Outside of 4 cupcake out of conference games (OOCs), the Commodores schedule is unforgiving. The best shot to win a game in the SEC are all on the road as Ole Miss, South Carolina, Florida and the Vols all coming to Nashville. It will get worse in the future if the SEC forces a 9th conference tilt. For now, I feel they take a big step back from eight wins in 2013 and miss a bowl bid.

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Pretty interesting take on more then just the teams listed itt on his website. If anyone can throw out some outlandish pre season predictions and back them up after the season, it's this guy.