re: How the ‘24 election plays out

Trump's best chance at winning is in my opinion (1) the far left doesn't show up on election day due to being angry about Israel/Palestine and (2) the media and social media keep Trump from being all over the news.

I think Trump's best chances are in a low turnout election. If Biden keeps angering his base (young people and minorities who are lower propensity voters), that would obviously be good for Trump. Trump will turn out his base. There is little doubt about that. Keeping the turnout as low as possible would also prevent the moderates and independents who could sink Trump's chances from voting. If the democratic base and moderates/independents aren't motivated to show up, Trump's chances at winning greatly improve.

Also I think the less people hear from Trump the better his chances are. The average voter isn't on Truth Social. The more the moderates/independents hear from him, the more they will be reminded about the things they don't like. Keeping him off the airwaves and Twitter prevents him from doing any damage to his ability to get elected. This circles back to the first point, where Trump shouldn't be giving ammunition to the left's base and moderate/independent leaners.