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Prediction for the next 10 years in CFB
Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:07 pm
Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:07 pm
A perfect storm of factors will contribute to a massive decrease in college football popularity over the next 10 years.
1. Saban will retire. Now most see this as a resurgence, but it's quite the opposite. Saban and Alabama are so dynastic that casual fandom in CFB will decrease pretty heavily when the ride is over.
2. Players sitting out bowl games to preserve their NFL futures. Over time the idea of playing in college as a gateway to the NFL will start to die. McKenzie Milton almost lost a leg the other week. Players notice this. Especially when...
3. The rise of the minor leagues like the AAF. Soon they will start poaching college kids who want to actually make money while risking their futures instead of being left out to dry if they get injured in college.
1. Saban will retire. Now most see this as a resurgence, but it's quite the opposite. Saban and Alabama are so dynastic that casual fandom in CFB will decrease pretty heavily when the ride is over.
2. Players sitting out bowl games to preserve their NFL futures. Over time the idea of playing in college as a gateway to the NFL will start to die. McKenzie Milton almost lost a leg the other week. Players notice this. Especially when...
3. The rise of the minor leagues like the AAF. Soon they will start poaching college kids who want to actually make money while risking their futures instead of being left out to dry if they get injured in college.
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Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:09 pm to Kcoyote
quote:
3. The rise of the minor leagues like the AAF. Soon they will start poaching college kids who want to actually make money while risking their futures instead of being left out to dry if they get injured in college.
It's any day now. College football will go the way of college basketball if this happens. Hopefully low attendance at games for these expansion leagues will prevent too many of them from lasting.
Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:12 pm to Kcoyote
4. LSU fans will still bitch about refs.
Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:15 pm to Kcoyote
I'm hearing playoff expansion is basically a done deal so there's that.
Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:25 pm to Kcoyote
Alabama worried about a bidding war over players with the AAF?
Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:38 pm to Kcoyote
College football is too powerful to allow the AAFL types to destroy it.
College football would adapt to be the more attractive alternative if for some reason those leagues caught on.
College football would adapt to be the more attractive alternative if for some reason those leagues caught on.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 12:03 am to Kcoyote
quote:
The rise of the minor leagues like the AAF. Soon they will start poaching college kids who want to actually make money while risking their futures instead of being left out to dry if they get injured in college.
Yea,I'm sooooo petrified of all these "minor" leagues are gonna start "poaching" CFB players because of the VAST success of all those alternative pro FB leagues in the past.
So has the AAF flat out stated they're gonna go after HS kids?
If so,how much and what are they gonna pay/guarantee these kids?
Does ANYBODY in their right mind think these kids will get better coaching,training or have better facilities in the "minor leagues"?Are they gonna get insurance against a career ending injury like the NCAA can provide? Of course not
Flat out idiotic to think the AAF would have any type of serious impact if any on CFB
This post was edited on 12/14/18 at 12:05 am
Posted on 12/14/18 at 12:10 am to Kcoyote
I would love to see a minor league football become successful enough that it is purchased by the NFL. We need to clear out the kids that don't want to or shouldn't be on a college campus and also let the players who want to make money make some money.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 4:14 am to Kcoyote
OP made some interesting points
1)Saban retiring. Saban is the most adaptable and trend seeing coach in college football history. But he brings eyes to TV sets because of his emphasis on the defensive side of the ball. All this spread RPO up tempo offense that is "ref-assisted" (I see you Kyler Murray) brings in marginal fans particularly women and 12 year olds in adult bodies. These are of course the first fans to leave and go on to new things. The core college football fan loves what Bama represents- a strong running game and a strong emphasis on defense. Fortunately I do not think this will change even after Saban leaves.
2) Players sitting out Bowl games. It's bad but understandable when big name players sit out bowl games. It's going to cause both Bowls and the Networks to rethink how they market these games, But the key issue will be when big name players sit out Year 3 to "concentrate on the draft". We've had players like Jadaveon Clowney who mailed in their last year on campus. But after Joey Bosa this year we will no doubt see players sitting out their last season.
3) The AAF. I have no idea about the AAF. But I assume that they will adopt the same 3 year rule that the NCAA and NFL have worked out. Will players straight out of high school risk going to a new pro league for marginal salaries and injuring their undeveloped bodies? I'm sure they will. But once people see players have their careers ended at 18 or 19, most will opt for the development and care that you get at a major college.
1)Saban retiring. Saban is the most adaptable and trend seeing coach in college football history. But he brings eyes to TV sets because of his emphasis on the defensive side of the ball. All this spread RPO up tempo offense that is "ref-assisted" (I see you Kyler Murray) brings in marginal fans particularly women and 12 year olds in adult bodies. These are of course the first fans to leave and go on to new things. The core college football fan loves what Bama represents- a strong running game and a strong emphasis on defense. Fortunately I do not think this will change even after Saban leaves.
2) Players sitting out Bowl games. It's bad but understandable when big name players sit out bowl games. It's going to cause both Bowls and the Networks to rethink how they market these games, But the key issue will be when big name players sit out Year 3 to "concentrate on the draft". We've had players like Jadaveon Clowney who mailed in their last year on campus. But after Joey Bosa this year we will no doubt see players sitting out their last season.
3) The AAF. I have no idea about the AAF. But I assume that they will adopt the same 3 year rule that the NCAA and NFL have worked out. Will players straight out of high school risk going to a new pro league for marginal salaries and injuring their undeveloped bodies? I'm sure they will. But once people see players have their careers ended at 18 or 19, most will opt for the development and care that you get at a major college.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:07 am to Kcoyote
Even lower numbers of white players than now.
Their soccer moms are not letting them play football anymore.
Their soccer moms are not letting them play football anymore.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:09 am to Kcoyote
quote:
1. Saban will retire. Now most see this as a resurgence, but it's quite the opposite. Saban and Alabama are so dynastic that casual fandom in CFB will decrease pretty heavily when the ride is over.
Come on. This is not golf and Tiger.
Yes, Alabama is currently the best team in the nation. They have been the best team in the nation more times than not since Saban arrived. But to think they are somehow the sole reason there is a bunch of casual college football fans is just ignorant.
Now, you could say there are a boatload of fairweather fans that will flock to the next dynasty, but they won't just stop being college football fans altogether once Saban leaves. When Tiger retires - there absolutely will be a drop-off in golf "fans". The same cannot be said of Saban and Alabama.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:32 am to Kcoyote
Georgia wins 9 national championships
Posted on 12/14/18 at 8:09 am to Kcoyote
quote:I will argue that the landscape will change in a dramatic way. If you have looked at VR technology you would see where it is going. I have a VR system and the NextVR app allows you to watch sporting events in live time. It gives you an "on the field or on the court presence that is second to none. People are going to watch games in a "pay per view" and have the experience of being there, while sitting at home. It will not be a substitute for being there live, but it's the next big thing for an avid fan in another part of the country. It will be a revenue package that will increase the fan bases...college, high school and pro teams will benefit. IMO...your argument eliminates the "prove your worth" process that the pros need from a college athlete.
A perfect storm of factors will contribute to a massive decrease in college football popularity over the next 10 years. 1. Saban will retire. Now most see this as a resurgence, but it's quite the opposite. Saban and Alabama are so dynastic that casual fandom in CFB will decrease pretty heavily when the ride is over. 2. Players sitting out bowl games to preserve their NFL futures. Over time the idea of playing in college as a gateway to the NFL will start to die. McKenzie Milton almost lost a leg the other week. Players notice this. Especially when... 3. The rise of the minor leagues like the AAF. Soon they will start poaching college kids who want to actually make money while risking their futures instead of being left out to dry if they get injured in college.
This post was edited on 12/14/18 at 8:11 am
Posted on 12/14/18 at 9:04 am to Kcoyote
quote:
1. Saban will retire. Now most see this as a resurgence, but it's quite the opposite. Saban and Alabama are so dynastic that casual fandom in CFB will decrease pretty heavily when the ride is over.
The bandwagon fans will find another team, they always do.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 9:25 am to Kcoyote
Bama will win 8 natties. I will melt 8 times.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 9:40 am to Kcoyote
quote:
1. Saban will retire. Now most see this as a resurgence, but it's quite the opposite. Saban and Alabama are so dynastic that casual fandom in CFB will decrease pretty heavily when the ride is over.
This is dumb but your other points are good
quote:
2. Players sitting out bowl games to preserve their NFL futures. Over time the idea of playing in college as a gateway to the NFL will start to die. McKenzie Milton almost lost a leg the other week. Players notice this. Especially when...
Bowl games suck. Ive been in denial for a long time. Its just not that fun watching exhibition games. It is the right career move for promising players to sit out. Ill watch a few of the good matchups but they just arent that good.
quote:
3. The rise of the minor leagues like the AAF. Soon they will start poaching college kids who want to actually make money while risking their futures instead of being left out to dry if they get injured in college.
I dont think think this will have a huge impact one way or the other for fan interest, although it will be a healthy thing for CFB. Fan support isnt relative to the talent of the players. Fan support would be huge for CFB even if only a fraction of players relative to today were going pro. Its a regional pride kinda thing.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 12:02 pm to Kcoyote
God, Bama fans are insufferable. Casual fans don’t tune in because of Saban. Other than Bama fans and national media, everyone suffers from Bama fatigue.
The real reason CFB popularity is going to decrease is bc interest in football is already decreasing and has been. Add the accessibility and popularity of soccer.
The real reason CFB popularity is going to decrease is bc interest in football is already decreasing and has been. Add the accessibility and popularity of soccer.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 12:37 pm to Kcoyote
Bama fan thinks college football dies when Bama loses their coach who created a dynasty. You don't say?
Sorry pal, CFB makes a ton of money. It isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Sorry pal, CFB makes a ton of money. It isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 3:40 pm to Kcoyote
quote:
3. The rise of the minor leagues like the AAF. Soon they will start poaching college kids who want to actually make money while risking their futures instead of being left out to dry if they get injured in college.
If the NCAA loses the Alston antitrust suit (ruling should come in the next month or two) and if it loses on appeals, then say "goodbye" to amateurism.
Sports Illustrated: Stakes and Stakeholders in Alston v. NCAA, the Latest College Sports Antitrust Case
CBS Sports: Player compensation lawsuit vs. NCAA could usher in new round of conference realignment
CBS Sports: Lawsuit has conferences quietly preparing for the likelihood of compensating players
Trial details from a legal reporter
Posted on 12/14/18 at 4:34 pm to Kcoyote
quote:I don’t correct grammar, but I do correct diction. This is not an adjective meaning dynasty-like. It would mean Saban’s 1st-born son would succeed him as coach.
dynastic
This post was edited on 12/14/18 at 5:20 pm
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